Tropical Storm SAOLA Advisory Dom, 29-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR
39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 28
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TS SAOLA IS RAPIDLY DECAYING AND THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL LOOP AND ANIMATED RADAR LOOPS
FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T3.5 TO T4.5 (55-77 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 61 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF STRONG (30+ KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH
AN AREA OF COOL (<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOP, AND BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LINES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON THE MULTISPECTRAL LOOP. TS SAOLA IS ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS SAOLA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD,
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS
JUST SOUTH OF TOKYO MAKING A VERY BRIEF LANDFALL. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TS 27W WILL
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN