Tropical Storm HALONG Advisory Sáb, 02-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (HALONG)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 676 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AND IRREGULAR AREA OF DEEP FLARING CONVECTION,
WITH NO VISIBLE FORMATIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS TRACED FROM
LOW CLOUD FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND FROM A WEAK FORMATIVE
IMPARTIAL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 1532Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED
FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY,
SST VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 24W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 24W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UP TO TAU 48.
AFTERWARD IT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 105
KNOTS BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY HIGHER, DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 24W WILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 24W WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST BY TAU 120 BUT
WILL STILL BE A STORM FORCE COLD-CORE LOW, ALBEIT WITH AN EXPANSIVE
WIND FIELD. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AND LARGE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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