Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory Qua, 30-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 300605Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 300210Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS
EXTENSIVE 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) ALSO SUPPORT
THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOW (10-
15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES OF 28-29C ARE
CONDUCIVE FIR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MATMO WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR,
MAKING LANDFALL BY TAU 12 ALONG THE EAST COAST OF VIETNAM. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
NEAR 45 KNOTS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT NINE HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL,
RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF VIETNAM.//
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