Tropical Storm HAGUPIT Advisory Ter, 04-08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT)
WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11  KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED AFTER
IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR WENZHOU, CHINA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 032033Z
37GHZ SSMIS COLORIZED MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT MATCHED WITH AN LLC
FEATURE ON COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING HUZHEN,
10NM TO THE WEST, AND XIANJU, 11NM TO THE EAST. ABOVE THE RUGGED
TERRAIN, TS 03W IS UNDER STRONG (25KT+) VWS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS HAGUPIT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE RAGGED TERRAIN
OF EASTERN CHINA WEST OF SHANGHAI AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL EXIT INTO THE YELLOW SEA AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. STRONG VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 25KTS BEFORE EXITING BACK INTO
WATER. THE ADDITION OF COOL SST IN THE YELLOW SEA WILL LEAD TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE  UNCERTAINTY OF LAND PASSAGE, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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