Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE Advisory Seg, 21-06

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Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Deep convection is increasing in curved bands to the east and
northeast of the center, however the center of circulation itself
is not very well defined.  Coastal surface observations indicate
that the highest winds have increased to near 30 kt.  Some
additional restrengthening is anticipated, and Claudette is
expected to regain tropical storm strength prior to moving into the
Atlantic on Monday.  A little more intensification could occur
while the system moves near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream
during the next day or so, as reflected in the official forecast.
Within 48 hours, as the cyclone moves near Atlantic Canada, the
global models suggest that the system will lose tropical
characteristics, or even open up into a trough.

Claudette's forward speed is gradually increasing and the current
motion is estimated to be near 070/17 kt.  On the projected
track, the system should move into the western Atlantic tomorrow.
The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern
United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate east-
northeastward to northeastward during the next 48 hours.  The
official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to
the model consensus TVCN.

No changes to the warning and watch along the southeastern United
States coasts are required at this time.


Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday
morning.  Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible across these areas.

2.  A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across
parts of the coastal Carolinas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast by early Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 34.7N  80.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 35.9N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/0000Z 38.1N  71.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  22/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 44.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  23/1200Z 47.5N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch