MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 12// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE EASTERN CONVECTION IS FORMING A LARGE FEEDER BAND THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN AND INTO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED THE UPPER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD BASED ON THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SUSTAINING THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION AND IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS BRINGING SUBSIDENCE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, COOLING SSTS, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR KUNSAN, SOUTH KOREA. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTH KOREA WILL ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND RESULTING IN FULL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72 OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE FIRST 36 HOURS BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE RESULTING IN A SPREAD OF OVER 300NM BY TAU 72. THE PRINCIPLE EASTERN OUTLIERS ARE THE UKMET AND AFUM MODELS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT LATER TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.// NNNN NNNN