MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 03// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 090618Z 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK BANDING AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW A 090616Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 02W IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS AND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. AS TD 02W BEGINS TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD. TD 02W WILL EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND TRACK OVER WARM WATER ALLOWING IT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, TD 02W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BEYOND 72 HOURS, TD 02W WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES MINDANAO IN THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. BY TAU 96 TD 02W WEAKEN TO 40 KNOTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. AFTER TAU 96, TD 02W WILL MOVE INTO THE SULU SEA WHERE IT WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH WARM OCEAN WATER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN