MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 01// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 568 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE, LIMITED BANDING OVER THE LLCC. UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TD 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE EASTERN VISAYAS NEAR TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM, THERE ARE KEY FACTORS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, PRIMARILY, THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND THE CYCLIC NATURE OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION (CURRENTLY, MSI INDICATES THE CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WARM). TD 02W MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OR REMAIN STEADY AT 25 KNOTS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILLIPINES AFTER TAU 24. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 48 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.// NNNN NNNN