MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS WIDELY DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH INTO A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND FROM A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. GUIDED BY THE STR, TD 01W IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD, CROSSING THE VISAYAN ISLANDS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SLIGHTLY RECOVER IN THE SULU SEA. AFTER TAU 48, TD 01W WILL MAKE ONE FINAL ISLAND CROSSING THROUGH PALAWAN BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE SCS DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND COLD NORTHERLY SURGE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT BUT DUE TO THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN