MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 08// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 23W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM EAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY- CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY- CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 092124Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS FUELING THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A 09/2041Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS. TY 23W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 THEN RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TY SONGDA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TY SONGDA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. TY 23W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN