MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 11// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF AVAILABLE MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN, WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND SUPPORTED BY HAIKOU RADAR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN RJTD 2.0 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TD KUJIRA IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD KUJIRA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH VWS, TD 08W MAY RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BACK TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN, PRIOR TO MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA AROUND TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IN MOVES INLAND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN