MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 22// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES SHOWING SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 190143Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN EDGE OF SWATH CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS ALSO BASED ON THE OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING A REGION OF GALE FORCE WINDS RELATED TO A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT EXTENDING A SUBSTANTIAL DISTANCE WESTWARD WITH A REGION 35 KNOT BARBS TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING TO RELAX WITH ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TS 32W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 32W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS EXPANDING THE REACH OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND IMPARTING ENERGY INTO THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. TS 32W IS WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL HELPING TO MITIGATE WARM CORE CONSOLIDATION. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AND WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. TS 32W WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER EAST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA, AND FULLY DISSIPATE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MALAYSIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO WAIVER AS THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN MORE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THAN EXPECTED, SUGGESTING SOME STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR. OVERALL THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN