MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 002// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.5 (25 TO 35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CURRENTLY TD 30W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING. B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TD 30W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER LUZON SOMETIME AFTER TAU 96 AT OR NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT GROUPING IN POSSIBLE TRACKS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN