MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 05// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK, THAILAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION LOOSELY FEEDING INTO A WEAK AND OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A 070309Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND SUPPORTED BY THE 070600Z PGTW DVORAK FIX OF T1.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 30 CELSIUS. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MALAY PENINSULA IS BEGINNING TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KNOTS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF PRACHUAP KHIRI KHAN, THAILAND, BEFORE TAU 12. AFTER TAU 18, IT WILL CROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA AND EXIT INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA REGAINING TD STRENGTH BY TAU 36 AS OUTFLOW AND VENTILATION IMPROVE. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, TD 29W WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ANDAMAN ISLANDS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 72, TD 29W WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, THE MODEL SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT AS THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS LOSE THE VORTEX, LEADING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN