MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE) WARNING NR 20// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION(TD) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TD 22W (AERE) HAS RAPIDLY REORGANIZED AND REDEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONSOLIDATED AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122211Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE SSMIS-BASED WINDS INDICATE A BROAD SWATH OF 35KT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, AND STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN OUTSKIRTS OF THE SYSTEM. THE WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST REMAINS MUCH WEAKER, BUT WINDS REMAIN NEAR 20-25 KTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE MICROWAVE AND MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KTS BASED ON AN INITIAL PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING SINCE THIS SYSTEM HAS REGENERATED AND ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36, PEAKING AT 45 KTS BY 36, AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE. THE ACTUAL PEAK INTENSITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND OCCUR AFTER TAU 36 BUT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. LIMITED AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN