Tropical Storm NOUL Advisory Dom, 10-05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SUPER TYPHOON HAS MAINTAINED A SHARP WELL-
DEFINED 20-NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS
BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS)
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH, COMBINED
WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ABOVE 30 CELSIUS, IS CREATING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION. STY NOUL IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
06 TO 12 HOURS; HOWEVER, DUE TO FRICTION EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM
SWIRLS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON, STY 06W IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH AND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
ITS WEAKENING TREND BY TAU 12. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING STR. BY TAU 24, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SST WILL ERODE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND FURTHER
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.  AS STY 06W ACCELERATES AND BECOMES FURTHER
EMBEDDED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM WILL BROADEN
AND GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD, DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED ETT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
WEAKEN AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MIGRATE
FROM THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE DEVELOPING FRONTS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE FORCE, MID-LATITUDE LOW BY THE END OF
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL
JAPAN AND FURTHER ON INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.//
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