Tropical Storm CHAMPI Advisory Sáb, 24-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 45//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 35-NM
RAGGED EYE. A 240324Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYMMETRIC LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 25W IS TRACKING UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, THE SHEAR VECTOR IS PARALLEL TO
THE MOTION VECTOR, WHICH IS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RETAIN CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY, VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
OFFSETTING THE VWS. TY 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 25W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). TY 25W WILL COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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