Tropical Storm HIGOS Advisory Qua, 11-02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A RAPID WEAKENING PROCESS AS TS 02W
HAS DEVOLVED INTO A WELL-DEFINED AND FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 140NM TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS WELL-DEFINED LLCC OBSERVED IN THE MSI LOOP WAS
USED TO DETERMINE THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE
RAPIDLY DECAYING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BECOME CONSTRAINED AT HIGHER VALUES DUE TO THE RAPID
WEAKENING PROCESS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVALS AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETS
ANY POSITIVE EFFECTS OF GOOD OUTFLOW INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE MARGINAL AT
26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS AND THE PAST FEW MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE
DRY AIR IS SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM, TS 02W IS NOW TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG WITH THE
ENVIRONMENTAL LOW LEVEL FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER WHICH, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
FORECAST TO IMPROVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. THE BULK
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE SYSTEM TURNING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT DUE TO THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HEAVILY FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS
THE ONLY SOLUTION TO SHOW THIS PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION ALONG WITH
A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTH PAST TAU 12. DUE TO THIS DISPARITY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.//
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