Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN Advisory Ter, 27-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED YET TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) DE-COUPLED SOUTH OF AN AREA OF RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP
CONVECTION, WHICH IS SHEARING NORTHWARD. MSI SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
ADVECTION OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INFLUX OF COOLER, DRIER AIR. A 270638Z
SSMI 85GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE STILL REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS
STRUCTURE AND DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. TS 30W HAS
RECENTLY TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK WITHIN THE
STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NOCK-TEN IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE WEAKENING
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR. TS
30W SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONSEQUENTLY, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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