Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN Advisory Sáb, 24-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED
WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THIS EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.5
(127-150 KNOTS) AND REFLECTS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 30W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 72-HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CATANDUANES ISLAND SHORTLY AFTER TAU
24, AND THEN DRAG ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON THROUGH MANILA BEFORE
EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). STY NOCK-TEN WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE
WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
LAND. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL EMERGE OVER THE SCS AT TYPHOON
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN WILL BEGIN CURVING
SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON
SURGE OVER THE SCS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRYER AIR AND STRONG VWS. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS
HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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