Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory Sáb, 16-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO WEST NOW
PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45
KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.0 TO T3.5 (30 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD
DIVERGENCE TO WEST OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, STRONG EASTERLIES ARE
CREATING A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE NEAR 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TS 32W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD AS STEERING TRANSITIONS FROM THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST TO ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 32W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE NORTHWESTERN STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TS 32W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
STRONG WIND SHEAR PERSISTS AND THE LOW LEVER CIRCULATION TRACKS OVER
VISAYAN ISLANDS. AROUND TAU 48 TS 32W WILL REEMERGE AND
RECONSOLIDATE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AROUND
THIS TIME A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO FEED INTO THE
REGION IMPARTING ENERGY TO LLCC. WIND SHEAR AROUND THIS TIME IS
FORECAST TO RELAX SOME BUT REMAIN OVERALL MARGINAL. DUE TO
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TS 32W WILL GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE AND
TS 32W WILL REINTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS. THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL
EXTEND THE REACH OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK MOTION WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
SPEED. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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