Tropical Storm HAIMA Advisory Dom, 16-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WITH IMPROVING BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE 152100Z DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 FROM KNES AND T3.5 FROM PGTW
FOLLOWED BY THE 160000Z ESTIMATE OF T4.0 FROM PGTW. TY 25W REMAINS
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS. IT IS
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION, WITH WARM SSTS, EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THUS, A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY IN APPROXIMATELY 2 TO 3 DAYS.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
SLIGHTLY MORE RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE
SWITCHES TO THE STR NEAR TAIWAN, SO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO
CEASE WITH SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH LUZON. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWING A DECREASE BY TAU 96. SOME SLIGHT RE-
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE LLCC EMERGES OVER THE LUZON
STRAIT OR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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