Tropical Storm AERE Advisory Qui, 06-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
341 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTIALLY
EXPOSED AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 052301Z 91GHZ SSSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY of 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WITH MINIMAL SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES AND
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, ARE FAVORABLY WARM AT
30C. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS TOWARDS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE RESULTING IN WEAK INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45
KNOTS NEAR TAU 48.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL
ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE TD 22W TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL,
HOWEVER, INCREASE VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY RESULTING IN GRADUAL DECAY. BY END OF FORECAST, TD 22W WILL
BE REDUCED BACK TO 25 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE NEAR HAINAN.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS ARE WIDELY SPREAD ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU
12, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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