Tropical Storm TWENTYNINE Advisory Qui, 17-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
567 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED
WESTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
25 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A DIVERGENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS HELPING VENTILATE THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 28 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS
SHORT LIFESPAN. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS WILL MARGINALLY
OFFSET THE MODERATE VWS AND ALLOW SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER MINDANAO BY TAU 36. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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