Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN Advisory Sex, 23-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 669 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 230600Z SSMI 85GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TS NOCK-TEN REMAINS IN A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TS 30W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND A
RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OUT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. TS NOCK-TEN WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS), DUE TO HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
PRIOR TO REACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 30W IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINES. AFTERWARDS TS NOCK-TEN WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
THE NORTHEAST MONSOON FLOW AND ENCOUNTER COOLER, DRIER AIR AND
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED IN THE LONG RANGE WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS HIGHLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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