Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Dom, 08-01

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM
EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS WIDELY DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION LOOSELY
WRAPPING MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH INTO A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND FROM A
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. GUIDED BY THE STR, TD 01W IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD, CROSSING THE VISAYAN ISLANDS BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. LAND INTERACTION
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SLIGHTLY RECOVER
IN THE SULU SEA. AFTER TAU 48, TD 01W WILL MAKE ONE FINAL ISLAND
CROSSING THROUGH PALAWAN BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE SCS DUE TO
INCREASED VWS AND COLD NORTHERLY SURGE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT BUT DUE TO THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
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