MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 11// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO WEST NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T3.5 (30 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD DIVERGENCE TO WEST OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, STRONG EASTERLIES ARE CREATING A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE NEAR 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TS 32W IS TRACKING WESTWARD AS STEERING TRANSITIONS FROM THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST TO ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 32W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE NORTHWESTERN STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TS 32W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS STRONG WIND SHEAR PERSISTS AND THE LOW LEVER CIRCULATION TRACKS OVER VISAYAN ISLANDS. AROUND TAU 48 TS 32W WILL REEMERGE AND RECONSOLIDATE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AROUND THIS TIME A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO FEED INTO THE REGION IMPARTING ENERGY TO LLCC. WIND SHEAR AROUND THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOME BUT REMAIN OVERALL MARGINAL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TS 32W WILL GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY. C. BEYOND TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE AND TS 32W WILL REINTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS. THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL EXTEND THE REACH OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK MOTION WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN