Tropical Storm MEARI Advisory Qui, 03-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (MEARI)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM
NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. A 030600Z AMSU
89 GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES RANGING FROM T2.0-2.5 (30
TO 45 KNOTS), AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS MEARI IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) FEATURES POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, AS
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE TOWARD A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO VERSUS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER SCENARIO.
   B. TS MEARI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY ON A MORE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS THROUGH A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN TWO STR FEATURES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS
ALSO FORECASTED AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND VWS REMAINS LOW
NEAR THE STR AXIS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, ONCE PASSED THE STR AXIS, TS 26W WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND GAIN FORWARD SPEED AS A DEEPENING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE WITHIN THE DEEP
WESTERLIES. TS MEARI IS ALSO FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IN THE LATER TAUS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND A TIGHT THICKNESS GRADIENT. GIVEN THE RECENT
CONSOLIDATION OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ON A RECURVATURE SCENARIO,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.//
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