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Tropical Storm LIDIA Advisory Ter, 29-08

22:00
ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)

PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)
PUNTA EUGENIA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  11(21)   3(24)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  26(31)  23(54)   2(56)   X(56)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   1(18)   X(18)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)  22(46)   2(48)   1(49)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  28(38)   5(43)   1(44)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   8(25)   1(26)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)

BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)

GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   1(13)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)   1(16)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 110W       34  X  10(10)  40(50)  11(61)   2(63)   X(63)   X(63)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   3( 3)  10(13)   5(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)

25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  15(26)   3(29)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
25N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

30N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
FORECASTER BLAKE