MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 567 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED WESTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS HELPING VENTILATE THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 28 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS SHORT LIFESPAN. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS WILL MARGINALLY OFFSET THE MODERATE VWS AND ALLOW SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER MINDANAO BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN