Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory Ter, 19-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
SHOWING SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 190143Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN EDGE OF
SWATH CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND
IS ALSO BASED ON THE OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING A REGION OF GALE FORCE
WINDS RELATED TO A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT EXTENDING A SUBSTANTIAL
DISTANCE WESTWARD WITH A REGION 35 KNOT BARBS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING TO RELAX
WITH ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. SSTS IN THE REGION
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TS 32W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 32W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS EXPANDING THE REACH OF GALE FORCE WINDS
AND IMPARTING ENERGY INTO THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. TS 32W IS WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINAL HELPING TO MITIGATE WARM CORE CONSOLIDATION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX AND WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. TS 32W WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER EAST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA, AND FULLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MALAYSIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO WAIVER AS THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN MORE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THAN EXPECTED, SUGGESTING SOME STEERING INFLUENCE
FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE
ACCOUNTING FOR. OVERALL THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
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