Tropical Storm MELOR Advisory Ter, 15-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM SOUTH OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME COMPLETELY CLOUD-FILLED AS
TY 28W TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF MINDORO. THE STRUCTURE HAS
DEGRADED DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND AS INFLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS BEEN FORCED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS CENTRAL
TERRAIN OF MINDORO. THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BEEN
WEAKENING AS THE LINKAGE TO MID-LATITUDE FLOW DECREASES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT THE 150600Z SYNOPTIC TIME IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING IN MSI. TY 28W IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE LEVELED OUT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AS TY 28W MOVES BACK OVER WATER, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF REORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN KEPT HIGH BUT ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
   B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS THE BEGINNING OF A
NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE IMPACTS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, LENDING TO A
SLOW DISSIPATION TREND THROUGH TAU 36, WITH AN ACCELERATING TREND AS
THE COLD SURGE STRENGTHENS.
C. TY MELOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE COLD SURGE
FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DUE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
STEERING FLOW MECHANISMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
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