Tropical Storm IN-FA Advisory Qua, 25-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR
34//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 411 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
NORTHEAST, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS
THE DETERIORATING STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TS IN-FA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER. VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS SUSTAINING THE WANING DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS IN-FA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD DEEPER INTO THE
STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12 AS IT ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS
27W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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