Tropical Storm SINLAKU Advisory Qui, 27-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
278 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND PGTW
SATELLITE FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 21W IS LOCATED IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TD 21W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DOMINANT STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ALLOWING TD 21W TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 21W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF VIETNAM AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT
TRACKS INLAND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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