Tropical Storm KROSA Advisory Sex, 01-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KROSA) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 29W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 291 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVING
STRUCTURE AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
HAS DEEPENED AND CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER. A 01510Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED
SYSTEM WITH IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A PERSISTENT
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR RE-
INTENSIFICATION AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 29W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR LOCATED WEST OF TAIWAN, WHILE INTENSIFYING
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CHINA. AFTER THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE WEST,
MARGINAL SST VALUES (NEAR 26C) AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN A SLOW
WEAKENING PROCESS. AFTER TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND AND
FURTHER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INDUCE FURTHER
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM JUST
AFTER TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER LANDFALL BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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