Tropical Storm HIGOS Advisory Seg, 09-02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 658 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A MORE SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE MSI ALSO INSINUATES A PROBABLE EYE DEVELOPING. A 090410Z SSMI
37H MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI, MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND HEDGED TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE T4.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).  ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A POINT-SOURCE
THAT IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION
AND SUPPORTING THE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 02W
IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES (STR) TO
THE EAST ASSUMES THE STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY HIGOS WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TY 02W TO FURTHER INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TY HIGOS
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, NAMELY
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG VWS, ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER DECAY THE SYSTEM
LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED BUT STILL INDICATES A
LARGE SPREAD. NVGM AND GFDN ARE THE OUTLIERS TAKING THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD. JTWC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE REMAINING GUIDANCE,
POSITIONING THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER, DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS AND UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN