Tropical Storm TEMBIN Advisory Sex, 22-12

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTH
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
221024Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED INTO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND SUPPORTED BY THE DOPPLER
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) AND BELOW A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KNOTS DUE TO THE
WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM BECAUSE OF LAND INTERACTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
TS TEMBIN HAS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SLIGHTLY LESS
ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 33W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS TEMBIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
LOCATED TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SULU SEA AND MAKE LANDFALL ON SOUTHERN
PALAWAN BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE 75 KNOTS
AROUND TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SHIFT TO
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET
BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 33W IS FORECAST CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM AFTER TAU 72. LAND
INTERACTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING VWS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TS
TEMBIN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE INDOCHINESE PENINSULA. TS TEMBIN WILL
EXIT BACK OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AROUND TAU 96 AS A WEAK TROPICAL
STORM WHERE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TS 33W. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF THAILAND AND MAKE A
FINAL LANDFALL ON SOUTHERN THAILAND, CROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA AND
EXIT INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN. ADDITIONAL LAND INTERACTION WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE INDIAN OCEAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, WITH COAMPS-TC TAKING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC SITUATION, THIS
SOLUTION IS NOT LIKELY. THE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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