Tropical Storm FAXAI Advisory Seg, 09-09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM NORTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 14W HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DECAYED AS IT DRAGGED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN HONSHU AND
EXITED INTO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM JMA AND
CONSISTENT WITH NUMEROUS NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5/75KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE RAPID WEAKENING.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS NOW ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY FAXAI WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN
DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU
12, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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