Tropical Storm DANAS Advisory Sáb, 20-07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
192246Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, DEFINED CENTER WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 200110Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 28
KNOTS AND MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS).
OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. GALE FORCE
WINDS WINDS STRETCH SOUTH IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE FUELING THE
PERSISTENT HEAVY CONVECTION. THE WIND RADII FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
MULTI-MODEL WIND RADII CONSENSUS (RVCN) AND REFLECTS THE EXTENSIVE
SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS. TS 06W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 45NM AT TAU 12, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AS TS 06W APPROACHES
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF SOUTH KOREA NEAR TAU 12, IT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FORECAST
AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY TAU 36.//
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