Tropical Storm WUTIP Advisory Qui, 28-02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, ON A FULL-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS 02W IS TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
FULLY-EXPOSED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 30
TO 40 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AS IT
DISSIPATES UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
NNNN