MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 37// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON A FULL-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS FULLY-EXPOSED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 30 TO 40 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AS IT DISSIPATES UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN