MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 04// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX, WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SUPPORT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BASED ON THE 141312Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE PRIMARY HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC. TD 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE EASTERN VISAYAS BEFORE TAU 12. DUE TO THE POOR LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION AND APPROACHING LANDFALL, NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DISSIPATION OF TD 02W BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 36 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.// NNNN NNNN