Tropical Storm FOURTEEN Advisory Qua, 24-08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED  AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND LOWERED DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, NOW IN
ALIGNMENT WITH THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TD
14W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR FORECAST TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE AS A WEAK TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. BY TAU 24 TO 36 TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE
DISTURBANCE 92W CURRENTLY AT THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 30
DEGREES NORTH. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS BOTH TD 14W AND
DISTURBANCE 92W CONSOLIDATE TOGETHER AND MERGE. HOWEVER, THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH A NORTHERN TRACK INTO
COOLER WATERS WILL HINDER THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 14W WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH-WESTERN
TRACK AS A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
COOLER WATERS AND POOR UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL HELP WEAKEN TD
14W, AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS AVAILABLE DUE TO DIFFICULTY TRACKING THE ALREADY WEAK VORTICITY
SIGNATURE. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24,
BUT DIFFER AS INTERACTION WITH DISTURBANCE 92W OCCURS. DUE TO THE
COMPLEX INTERACTIONS AND LIMITED AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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