Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory Qua, 26-04

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
 TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM WITH PULSATING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN
A PARTIAL 260116Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND BY A HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGE FROM A 251245Z METOP-B
ASCAT
PASS SHOWING 40 KNOTS ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, AND AN EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET.
CURRENTLY TS 03W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 03W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK GUIDED BY THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 24 TS 03W WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE
THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TIGHT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK TRAJECTORY, ALTHOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING FASTER
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 48. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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